WICHITA — The Storm Prediction Center has placed a Marginal Risk (Level 1) for severe thunderstorms across a wide swath of the central Plains and Corn Belt, valid from noon Monday, August 31 through noon Tuesday, September 1, with a second marginal pocket now identified near Minneapolis.
The highest-confidence area of severe potential runs as a narrow band from western Kansas and Colorado through Nebraska and into northern Illinois, while a separate Marginal Risk pocket sits over Minnesota, centered near Minneapolis. The broader general thunderstorm risk extends much farther, from Spokane and Boise in the west through Salt Lake City, Denver, Kansas City, Chicago, Detroit, Toronto and into the Northeast, reaching New York.
- Risk level: Marginal (Level 1 of 5), the lowest severe category on the SPC scale
- Valid period: 1200Z Monday, August 31 through 1200Z Tuesday, September 1
- Core threat zones: Central High Plains through parts of the Corn Belt, plus an isolated pocket over Minnesota
- General thunderstorm risk: Covers most of the western U.S., Midwest and Northeast
- Notable no-risk zone: A large area of no thunderstorm activity is expected from Dallas and Houston through Atlanta, cutting across much of the South
- Issued: 2:35 p.m. CDT Saturday by SPC forecaster Jewell
A Modest Threat With Two Separate Watch Areas
A Marginal Risk designation means isolated severe thunderstorms are possible but widespread severe weather is not expected. The two darker green zones, one stretching from the central High Plains into the Corn Belt and the other centered near Minneapolis, carry the greatest concentration of that risk, while the lighter green shading across the rest of the outlook area reflects general thunderstorm coverage without a severe designation attached. Notably, a wide stretch from Dallas and Houston through New Orleans and Atlanta falls entirely outside any thunderstorm risk for this period.
No severe weather has occurred yet, as this outlook covers a period beginning Monday. This article will be updated if the Storm Prediction Center upgrades any portion of this area in later outlooks.
For more coverage like this, check back for the latest severe weather updates.
