FAYETTEVILLE — The Storm Prediction Center issued Mesoscale Discussion #2112 at 10:31 a.m. CDT Monday, flagging increasing severe storm potential across parts of the Carolinas, including Fayetteville, Lumberton, Wilmington, and Myrtle Beach, by early to mid afternoon. Forecasters say a severe thunderstorm watch is possible, with a 40% probability of one being issued before the discussion expires at 2 p.m. EDT.

What the Discussion Covers

• Valid until: 2:00 p.m. EDT, Monday, August 24
• Watch probability: 40%
• Most probable peak wind: 55 to 70 mph
• Most probable peak tornado wind: 90 mph or less
• Most probable peak hail: 1.25 inches or less
• Area affected: stretches from inland near Fayetteville southeast through Lumberton, Florence, and Kingstree to the coast near Wilmington, Myrtle Beach, and Georgetown

Why a Mesoscale Discussion Matters

A Mesoscale Discussion is issued when forecasters see conditions coming together that could require a formal watch, but haven’t yet crossed that threshold. It’s a heads-up product, meant to bridge the gap between routine outlooks and an actual severe thunderstorm or tornado watch. With a 40% watch probability attached and peak wind gusts estimated between 55 and 70 mph, this discussion signals that forecasters are watching the atmosphere closely over the next few hours as storms develop across the region.

Where Things Stand

This discussion is valid through 2 p.m. EDT and reflects a developing situation rather than a confirmed severe weather event. No watch has been issued as of this writing, and no damage or storm reports have been confirmed. This article will be updated if the Storm Prediction Center issues a formal watch or if storm reports come in from the affected area.

Severe Weather Safety Guide

Before storms develop:

• Stay weather aware through early afternoon: conditions are expected to become more favorable for severe storms as the day progresses
• Have a way to receive alerts: a weather radio or phone notifications will be critical if a watch or warning is issued
• Secure loose outdoor items ahead of potential wind gusts up to 70 mph

If a watch or warning is issued:

• Move to an interior room away from windows if a warning is issued for your location
• Avoid travel through the affected corridor if storms are actively developing nearby

After storms pass:

• Avoid downed power lines and treat all as live
• Check for damage before heading outside, especially in areas that saw the strongest wind gusts

Part of an Active Afternoon Across the Carolinas

Monday’s discussion adds to what has been an unsettled pattern across the Carolinas, with radar and satellite data showing numerous developing storm cells stretching from inland North Carolina down through the South Carolina coast. Whether or not a formal watch is issued, the setup underscores an active severe weather threat building into the afternoon and evening hours.

For more coverage like this, check back for the latest severe weather updates.